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    Freddy Hutter, data analyst







    Freddy Hutter, data analyst



    thanx

    I've been sharing updates of my "Covid Fatalities Projections" since April 2020 and updates of my "Yukon Protocol" since Aug/2009.  The latter provides policymakers & the public with my calculations of each nation's obligation to meet their commitment to the UN's Green Climate Fund.  As re-affirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021, the world's 114 least mature economies may draw upon the Fund to build green infrastructure.  Below is a list of the top 100 cumulative co2 emitters - calculated back to Year 1750 - and their annual assessments.

    TRENDLines Research began publishing real estate stats in 1989 and conducted political polling & election projections in several nations shortly thereafter.  In the coming months I hope to publish a variety of my other macro-economic models:  the TRENDLines Recession Indicator (USA, Canada & China), historic Realty Bubbles (USA, Canada, UK & Australia), Peak Oil projection, Gasoline & Oil Price Components, projected Sea Level by Year 2100 & projected co2 ppm by Year 2100.


    TRENDLines Research

    charts@

    facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

    twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

    112 Deep Bay Marina
    Box 191 Bowser BC Canada V0R1G0
    (250) 918-5325
    from  canada, eh!
    TRENDLines Research  ...   providing macro-economic charts & guidance for legislators, policymakers, investors, stakeholders & the public
    long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines Research removes the noise from economic & science data to reveal the underlying trends

    ~

    TRENDLines Research's
    Covid Fatalities Projections

    covid may2022
    new
    "future deaths" figures above are updated weekly at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

    next monthly chart update:  June 17th 2022

    --- until next monthly composite chart update on June 17 2022, see weekly update of "future deaths" at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

    OMICRON'S SUB-VARIANT WAVE MAY END NOVEMBER 2022!
    PROJECTED FUTURE FATALITIES:  86,000 WORLDWIDE
    incl:  USA 10,800 & UK 3,900 & CANADA 1,880 (incl 670 ONTARIO & 166 BC VICTIMS)

    May 20th 2022 - Based on novel coronavirus's ever-changing mortality rates in recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's Covid-19 fatalities model projects an ultimate 2020-2022 death count of 6.36 million worldwide (present toll 6.27 million + 86,000 future) incl 1,027,200 in the USA (1,016,400 toll + 10,800 future);  200,200 in the UK (196,300 toll + 3,900 future) & 42,270 in Canada (40,390 toll + 1,880 future) incl 13,790 in Ontario (13,120 toll + 670 future) & 3,564 in BC (3,398 toll + 166 future) - based on current relaxed policymaker mitigation of the Omicron sub-variants.

    Whereas previous lethal coronavirus events (MERS & SARS) were relatively short-lived due to aggressive contact tracing, misguided policymaker mitigation decisions allowed Covid-19 to become a multi-wave pandemic with a projected 35 month duration (assuming no new variants-of-concern).

    This humankind disaster stems from most jurisdictions: (a) adopting the horrific Trump strategy of premature lifting of restrictions (thrice);  (b) reluctance to require/maintain shelter-in-place;  (c) an over-reliance on vaccination programs;  (d) failure to assist vaccination in developing nations;  (e) identifiable leadership complicity in anti-mandate (eg masks, social distancing & vaccinations); & (f) virtually abandoning vigilant testing & contact tracing convention post Delta.

    These failures to isolate the original virus led to successive surges of same and founded an environment for the Alpha, Beta, Delta & Omicron (incl BA2/4/5) variants-of-concern to flourish.  Modelling reveals this event should have been only a six-month episode with 1.1 million fatalities.  Instead, policymaker hubris may have caused 5.2 million unnecessary victims worldwide.  These surplus deaths include 870K in USA, 149K in UK & 29K in Canada (incl 10K in Ontario & 2,900 in BC).

    My Post-Peak Linearization Model indicated prudent mitigation efforts had essentially suppressed Covid's first surge by mid-2020 in the UK & Canada (incl Ontario & BC.  Unfortunately, those early lock-down & shelter-in-place sacrifices proved to be in vain.  Premature relaxation of Orders and restrictions in all four jurisdictions gave rise to new surges upon each attempt at re-opening.  Just as the USA & Global models were to signal suppression in July 2021, the Delta wave overcame the gains.

    In much of the word, similar policymaker mismanagement resulted in a string of five waves (defined as seasonal outbreaks or material strain mutations):  Original, Alpha/Beta, Delta, Omicron & BA2/4/5 sub-variants and surges within those waves.

    As a "post-peak" model, no projections were generated during the strong Delta & Omicron episodes.  Surges in cases, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths since mid 2021 reigned primarily in Vax-hesitant regions.  Excepting developing nations lacking vaccination access, one might surmise there was a lot of Darwin's natural selection at work.  And fortunately, the latter are mostly right-wing qAnons.

    Originally, consensus held natural & community (vaccinated) herd immunity would kick in upon regions attaining 67% infection and/or jabs.  But failure to suppress the original strain, the subsequent spawning of variants-of-concern, broad-based vaccine hesitancy & the inability of vaccines to prevent break-thru cases upon waning immunity appear to have killed off any hope of illusive herd immunity.

    Current model runs indicate Omicron and its sub-variants will transition to endemic status June thru September.  :  late April in Ontario & Canada-wide;  early May in BC & USA;  and early June in UK & Worldwide.  Omicron's BA2 sub-variant is presently forming a 4th Covid19 Wave.  As 34% of the globe still lacks even a first jab, it is highly probable new variants-of-concern will arise this Autumn.

    See website table for archive of all my projections since April 2020.  The model's composite chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:

      &  www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

    new weekly update of future deaths projections:  www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

    WORLDWIDE
    Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 86,000 fatalities across the globe while transitioning to endemic status in mid July and expire in November  -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (6.27 million), an ultimate 6.36 million victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (1,600) is down 89% from its January 2021 record high (14,400).  Today 64% of the world's population have at least one jab.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

    Failing a new wave, the model suggests the Covid19 pandemic is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 102 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

    The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths rate today:  USA (260), UK, Brazil, Russia, France, Canada, Thailand, South Korea, Australia & Japan.

    The model reveals 5.2 million souls (of 6.33 mil total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

    41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.

    Worldwide
    mortality rate:  0.08% or 813 deaths/million population

    USA
    The model similarly projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 10,800 fatalities across America while transitioning to endemic status in mid June and expiring in September -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (1,016,400), an ultimate 1,027,200 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

    Today's daily-deaths rate (260) is 93% below its Jan/2021 record high (3,500).  The States with the most daily-deaths today are California (39), New York, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Georgia & Texas.

    Failing a new wave, the model suggests the USA's Covid19 pandemic is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

    During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the former President proposed packing the nation's churches on Easter and return to work the following day.  It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

    It marked the day everything changed.  For context of Trump's containment failure, the USA had over half of worldwide cases & deaths in 2020.  Twenty-six months later, the USA still has 16% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 16% of the today's global "active" cases & 16% of worldwide body bags.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2.  75 million workers initiated unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term.

    The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

    The model reveals reveals 870,000 souls (of 1,015,000 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

    Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims - as high as 73% in some States.  81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.

    USA's mortality rate:  0.30% or 3,009 deaths/million -- 17th worst in world - behind Peru (0.66%), Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Georgia, North Macedonia, Croatia, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Brazil, Slovenia, Poland & Chile.

    UK
    The model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 3,900 fatalities across the UK while transitioning to endemic status in mid June and expiring in August -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (196,300), an ultimate 200,200 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

    The UK's wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late May 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (120) is 90% below its Jan/2021 record high (1,200).

    Failing a new wave, the model suggests the UK's Covid19 pandemic is 98% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 757,000 UK lives (66 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

    The model reveals 149K souls (of 195,650 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

    The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 3% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 4% of today's world "active" cases.

    37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

    UK's mortality rate:  0.26% or 2,555 deaths/million (28th worst in world)

    CANADA
    The model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 1,880 fatalities across Canada while transitioning to endemic status in September and expiring in December -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (40,390), an ultimate 42,270 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

    The model reveals Canada's wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (37) is 79% below its May 2020 record high (175).

    Failing a new wave, the model suggests Canada's Covid19 pandemic is 96% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 421,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

    The model reveals 29K souls (of 38,470 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

    Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities.  88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.

    Canada's mortality rate:  0.10% or 1,021 deaths/million

    ONTARIO
    The
    model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 670 fatalities across Ontario while transitioning to endemic status in September and expiring in December -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (13,120), an ultimate 13,790 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

    It reveals Ontario's wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day.  Today's daily-deaths rate (13) is 80% below its record highs (60) in May 2020 & Jan/2021.

    Failing a new wave, the model suggests Ontario's pandemic is 95% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

    The model reveals 10K (of 12,750 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

    Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

    Ontario's mortality rate:  0.09% or 852 deaths/million

    BC
    The model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 166 fatalities across the Province while transitioning to endemic status in late June and expiring in August -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (3,398), an ultimate 3,564 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

    It reveals BC's wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 - when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late July 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  And a third when Delta troughed in early January 2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (8) is down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.

    Failing a new wave, the model suggests BC's pandemic is 95% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 33,500 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

    The model reveals 2K souls (of 3,066 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

    BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe.  British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.  Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.

    Credit to BC in being among the first to mandate full vaccination for healthcare workers and bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.  Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.

    BC mortality rate:  0.06% or 587 deaths/million

    The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
    These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection (asymptote) of their trend line at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trend line to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

    There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.

     
    About TRENDLines Research
    Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.


    Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020-2022 Covid19 Fatalities

    BC
    Ontario Canada
    UK
    USA
    World
    newMay 20 2022
    3,56413,79042,270
    200,200
    1,027,200
    6.36 million
    April 8
    3,06612,75038,470
    195,650
    1,015,000
    6.33 million
    March 6
    3,19612,81038,050
    163,180
    1,071,000
    6.31 million
    February
    -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
    January 2022 -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
    Dec 18 2021
    2,48810,70031,190
    154,200
    889,000
    5.8 million
    Nov 24
    2,36510,11030,700
    150,250
    859,000
    6.1 million
    Oct 9
    2,0549,96029,200
    141,730
    773,000
    5.6 million
    September -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
    August
    -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
    July 5
    1,7789,80027,020
    128,990
    621,000
    4.4 million
    June 2
    1,8079,44027,490
    128,435
    655,000
    4,560,000
    May 3
    2,257
    8,60025,820
    128,200
    650,000
    4,320,000
    April 1
    1,668
    7,96524,070
    127,460
    584,000
    7,700,000
    March 1
    1,406
    7,27022,840
    127,100
    570,000
    2,900,000
    Feb 3
    1,317
    7,68022,260
    129,500
    520,000
    2,730,000
    Jan 18
    1,250
    7,81022,700
    102,700
    604,000
    8,950,000
    Jan 2 2021
    1,151
    5,56019,000
    139,000
    763,000
    4,400,000
    Dec 16 2020
    -
    4,22015,330
    89,000
    599,000
    3,190,000
    Nov 20
    -
    -13,400
    -396,000
    2,110,000
    Oct 20
    412
    3,54010,800
    46,500295,000
    1,970,000
    Oct 10
    374
    3,5409,840
    44,450289,000
    2,090,000
    Sept 30
    290
    3,03810,160
    44,800270,000
    1,670,000
    Sept 20
    437
    2,9479,895
    43,840266,000
    1,730,000
    Sept 10
    277
    2,9059,440
    42,200245,000
    1,440,000
    Sept 5
    274
    2,909 9,460
    42,120 267,000
    1,410,000
    Aug 30
    216
    2,9299,450
    42,230284,000
    1,380,000
    Aug 25
    217
    2,8689,370
    42,010269,000
    1,450,000
    Aug 20
    205
    2,8629,302
    41,990265,000
    1,490,000
    Aug 15
    204
    2,8519,100
    48,600418,000
    2,100,000
    Aug 10
    207
    2,8529,075
    48,800377,000
    2,450,000
    Aug 5
    205
    2,8549,070
    48,500282,000
    1,990,000
    July 30
    207
    2,8459,050
    48,200308,000
    2,040,000
    July 25
    199
    2,8439,030
    48,100239,000
    1,630,000
    July 20
    215
    2,8509,060
    48,100204,000
    1,500,000
    July 15
    200
    2,8258,940
    46,200180,000
    1,140,000
    July 10
    189 2,8208,930
    46,000175,000
    1,170,000
    July 5
    180 2,8458,910
    46,000173,000
    1,170,000
    June 30
    177 2,8908,840
    45,600161,000
    1,340,000
    June 25
    172 2,9208,860
    44,700141,000
    1,190,000
    June 21st 2020
    Actual Deaths:
    171 2,657 8,481
    42,731 122,468
    472,779
    June 20 forecasts
    for Year 2020

    170
    2,8109,000
    46,800145,000
    1,145,000
    June 16
    170
    2,9409,660
    48,900140,000
    905,000
    June 12
    172
    3,17010,200
    47,400141,000
    852,000
    June 9
    172
    3,5309,430
    49,200134,000
    640,000
    June 6
    191
    2,7709,700
    45,500127,000
    525,000
    June 3
    197
    2,5508,470
    42,500122,000
    471,000
    June 1
    216
    2,5408,370
    42,000122,000
    466,000
    May 30
    225
    2,5307,990
    41,600121,000
    428,000
    May 28
    217
    2,4807,870
    41,100119,000
    420,000
    May 26
    225
    2,3907,590
    41,600119,000
    420,000
    May 24
    224

    7,470

    120,000
    420,000
    May 22
    223

    7,300

    117,000
    409,000
    May 20
    196

    7,040

    111,000
    403,000
    May 18
    193

    7,135

    110,000
    406,000
    May 16
    180

    7,125

    111,000
    396,000
    May 14
    174

    7,025

    109,000
    381,000
    May 12
    189

    6,850

    105,000
    386,000
    May 10
    222

    6,900

    116,000
    393,000
    May 8
    183

    6,860

    119,000
    339,000
    May 6
    202

    6,475

    103,000
    352,000
    May 4
    200

    6,000

    95,000
    386,000
    May 2
    205

    5,900

    117,000
    380,000
    Apr 30 2020
    238

    5,120

    80,000
    380,000
    Apr 28 forecasts
    for June 21st 2020
    176

    3,960

    70,500
    314,000

    TRUMP-VIRUS THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020

      Dec 18th 2021 update - So how did the USA embark on this historic crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President stated to the Fox News host:

    "You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the advantage we have."

    It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

    But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why does the USA have 23% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 24% of worldwide body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  This business con man's failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

    Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

    This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

    It was soon evident many continued to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" relaxed physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking & contact tracing.

    From the onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.

    So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement was Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).

    And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 2.5 million remain on the rolls (1.7 mil pre-pandemic).  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 tried some desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... sabotaging the postal system for an electoral advantage ... and challenging those mail-in ballots and finally ... recruiting nationalist militia to overthrow the Capitol on January 6th.

    The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

    The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day was pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 815,000 fatalities (thus far).

    Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q2GDP plunged 31% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.

    TRI USA long

    the traditional definitions

    TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
    SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
    DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
    GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

    RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
    EXPANSION PERIOD: 
    monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

    STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Real GDP adjusted for Fiscal Policy Deficit/Surplus effects to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
     
    UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
    MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
    WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

    U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

    real unemployment rates





    START
    FINISH




    ~

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     Last modified:  May 20, 2022  ~  (? 1989-2022 TRENDLines Research)


    keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing


    TRENDLines Research's

    YUKON PROTOCOL
    for the UN's
    CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN
    & its GREEN CLIMATE FUND

    Nov 24th 2021 - TRENDLines Research published its "Yukon Protocol" on Aug 23 2009 to provide guidance to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and policymakers of developed nations in establishing equitable contributions wrt the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan -- reaffirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021.

    As background, after each of the UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, developing nations begrudged demands on them to forego economical coal, oil and gases as their gracious part in "saving the planet".

    Their objections are founded in the perceived unfairness that while today's wealthy nations achieved their status in part via industrialization under a high emissions regime, the latter has undergone an epiphany of sorts and so to suppress imminent climate change due to past sins, they now chastise developing nations for utilizing those same efficient fossil fuel resources to foster their growth.

    So as a fairness measure to offset the cost burden of low emission infrastructure in young economies, COP15-Copenhagen-2009 proposed a Green Climate Fund (GCF) from which they can draw upon -- and to be funded by mature nations.

    Subsequent COP's (Conference Of the Parties) established the GCF, but a dozen years on, donor nations continue a struggle to find equitable contribution levels.

    TR's Yukon Protocol suggests a truly relevant apportionment of the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan rests in setting national contributions in accordance to each country's share of cumulative co2 emissions.

    The Yukon Protocol's latest methodology divides up the $100 billion Climate Finance target among the top 100 co2 emitters using their known prorated share of cumulative emissions (since Year 1750).  Said 100 are responsible for 97% of total emissions for this period.  The remaining 114 nations are candidates for GCF grants & loans.

    With full compliance, annual contributions within the Protocol range from $31 million assessed against Jamaica - the lowest of the 100 top emitters (0.03%) to $25.65 billion due from the largest - the USA (25.65%).  Over 2/3 of the target is achieved levying the top ten emitters.

    Credit to CDIAC, GCP & OWID acknowledged as data sources.

    link to 5pg printable PDF


    YUKON PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN


    Top 100
     emitter nations

    funding proportion based on cumulative co2 emissions


    assessed share of
    $100 billion target


    emitter rating

     

     

     

     

    United States

    25.65%

    $25,651,095,494

    1

    China

    13.76%

    $13,755,684,167

    2

    Russia

    7.12%

    $7,120,711,038

    3

    Germany

    5.75%

    $5,746,176,106

    4

    United Kingdom

    4.87%

    $4,867,713,931

    5

    Japan

    4.04%

    $4,040,926,002

    6

    India

    3.25%

    $3,245,142,621

    7

    France

    2.39%

    $2,387,350,145

    8

    Canada

    2.07%

    $2,066,969,822

    9

    Ukraine

    1.85%

    $1,849,937,991

    10

    Poland

    1.73%

    $1,725,919,802

    11

    Italy

    1.52%

    $1,519,222,819

    12

    South Africa

    1.29%

    $1,291,856,139

    13

    Mexico

    1.24%

    $1,240,181,893

    14

    Iran

    1.15%

    $1,147,168,251

    15

    Australia

    1.14%

    $1,136,833,402

    16

    South Korea

    1.06%

    $1,064,489,458

    17

    Brazil

    0.95%

    $950,806,118

    18

    Saudi Arabia

    0.93%

    $930,136,420

    19

    Spain

    0.92%

    $919,801,571

    20

    Indonesia

    0.85%

    $847,457,627

    21

    Kazakhstan

    0.84%

    $837,122,778

    22

    Belgium

    0.78%

    $775,113,683

    23

    Czechia

    0.74%

    $744,109,136

    24

    Netherlands

    0.72%

    $723,439,438

    25

    Turkey

    0.65%

    $651,095,494

    26

    Taiwan

    0.54%

    $537,412,154

    27

    Romania

    0.53%

    $527,077,305

    28

    Argentina

    0.52%

    $516,742,456

    29

    Venezuela

    0.49%

    $485,737,908

    30

    Thailand

    0.44%

    $444,398,512

    31

    Uzbekistan

    0.41%

    $413,393,964

    32

    Egypt

    0.38%

    $382,389,417

    33

    Malaysia

    0.36%

    $361,719,719

    34

    Austria

    0.34%

    $341,050,021

    35

    Belarus

    0.33%

    $330,715,172

    36

    North Korea

    0.32%

    $320,380,322

    37

    Hungary

    0.31%

    $310,045,473

    38

    Pakistan

    0.31%

    $310,045,473

    38

    Sweden

    0.31%

    $310,045,473

    38

    United Arab Emirates

    0.29%

    $289,375,775

    41

    Algeria

    0.28%

    $279,040,926

    42

    Iraq

    0.28%

    $279,040,926

    43

    Denmark

    0.26%

    $258,371,228

    44

    Greece

    0.25%

    $248,036,379

    45

    Bulgaria

    0.24%

    $237,701,530

    46

    Nigeria

    0.24%

    $237,701,530

    46

    Slovakia

    0.24%

    $237,701,530

    46

    Vietnam

    0.23%

    $227,366,680

    49

    Colombia

    0.21%

    $206,696,982

    50

    Philippines

    0.21%

    $206,696,982

    50

    Finland

    0.20%

    $196,362,133

    52

    Switzerland

    0.19%

    $186,027,284

    53

    Chile

    0.18%

    $175,692,435

    54

    Kuwait

    0.18%

    $175,692,435

    54

    Serbia

    0.18%

    $175,692,435

    54

    Azerbaijan

    0.17%

    $165,357,586

    57

    Norway

    0.17%

    $165,357,586

    57

    Portugal

    0.17%

    $165,357,586

    57

    Turkmenistan

    0.17%

    $165,357,586

    57

    Israel

    0.14%

    $144,687,888

    61

    Ireland

    0.13%

    $134,353,038

    62

    Singapore

    0.13%

    $134,353,038

    62

    Libya

    0.12%

    $124,018,189

    64

    Qatar

    0.12%

    $124,018,189

    64

    New Zealand

    0.11%

    $113,683,340

    66

    Peru

    0.11%

    $113,683,340

    66

    Syria

    0.11%

    $113,683,340

    66

    Cuba

    0.10%

    $103,348,491

    69

    Hong Kong

    0.10%

    $103,348,491

    69

    Morocco

    0.10%

    $103,348,491

    69

    Bangladesh

    0.09%

    $93,013,642

    72

    Estonia

    0.09%

    $93,013,642

    72

    Trinidad & Tobago

    0.09%

    $93,013,642

    72

    Lithuania

    0.08%

    $82,678,793

    75

    Croatia

    0.07%

    $72,343,944

    76

    Ecuador

    0.07%

    $72,343,944

    76

    Oman

    0.07%

    $72,343,944

    76

    Bosnia & Herzegovina

    0.06%

    $62,009,095

    79

    Georgia

    0.06%

    $62,009,095

    79

    Moldova

    0.06%

    $62,009,095

    79

    Bahrain

    0.05%

    $51,674,246

    82

    Kyrgyzstan

    0.05%

    $51,674,246

    82

    Latvia

    0.05%

    $51,674,246

    82

    Luxembourg

    0.05%

    $51,674,246

    82

    Slovenia

    0.05%

    $51,674,246

    82

    Tunisia

    0.05%

    $51,674,246

    82

    Zimbabwe

    0.05%

    $51,674,246

    82

    Angola

    0.04%

    $41,339,396

    89

    Armenia

    0.04%

    $41,339,396

    89

    Dominican Republic

    0.04%

    $41,339,396

    89

    Jordan

    0.04%

    $41,339,396

    89

    Lebanon

    0.04%

    $41,339,396

    89

    Mongolia

    0.04%

    $41,339,396

    89

    North Macedonia

    0.04%

    $41,339,396

    89

    Yemen

    0.04%

    $41,339,396

    89

    Bolivia

    0.03%

    $31,004,547

    97

    Curacao

    0.03%

    $31,004,547

    97

    Guatemala

    0.03%

    $31,004,547

    97

    Jamaica

    0.03%

    $31,004,547

    97

     

    100.00%

     

    assessed nations:

    ver 21.1116

    100.00%

    $100,000,000,000

    100

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    114 Recipient Entities:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Kenya

     

     

     

    Myanmar

     

     

     

    Sri Lanka

     

     

     

    Sudan

     

     

     

    Tajikistan

     

     

     

    Albania

     

     

     

    Brunei

     

     

     

    Cote d'Ivoire

     

     

     

    Cyprus

     

     

     

    Gabon

     

     

     

    Ghana

     

     

     

    Honduras

     

     

     

    Panama

     

     

     

    Uruguay

     

     

     

    Afghanistan

     

     

     

    Bahamas

     

     

     

    Benin

     

     

     

    Botswana

     

     

     

    Cambodia

     

     

     

    Cameroon

     

     

     

    Costa Rica

     

     

     

    Democratic Republic of Congo

     

     

     

    El Salvador

     

     

     

    Equatorial Guinea

     

     

     

    Ethiopia

     

     

     

    Guyana

     

     

     

    Iceland

     

     

     

    Kosovo

     

     

     

    Laos

     

     

     

    Madagascar

     

     

     

    Malta

     

     

     

    Mauritius

     

     

     

    Montenegro

     

     

     

    Mozambique

     

     

     

    Nepal

     

     

     

    New Caledonia

     

     

     

    Nicaragua

     

     

     

    Papua New Guinea

     

     

     

    Paraguay

     

     

     

    Senegal

     

     

     

    Suriname

     

     

     

    Tanzania

     

     

     

    Uganda

     

     

     

    Zambia

     

     

     

    Andorra

     

     

     

    Anguilla

     

     

     

    Antigua & Barbuda

     

     

     

    Aruba

     

     

     

    Barbados

     

     

     

    Belize

     

     

     

    Bermuda

     

     

     

    Bhutan

     

     

     

    Bonaire Sint Eustatius & Saba

     

     

     

    British Virgin Islands

     

     

     

    Burkina Faso

     

     

     

    Burundi

     

     

     

    Cape Verde

     

     

     

    Central African Republic

     

     

     

    Chad

     

     

     

    Comoros

     

     

     

    Congo

     

     

     

    Cook Islands

     

     

     

    Djibouti

     

     

     

    Dominica

     

     

     

    Eritrea

     

     

     

    Eswatini

     

     

     

    Faeroe Islands

     

     

     

    Fiji

     

     

     

    French Polynesia

     

     

     

    Gambia

     

     

     

    Greenland

     

     

     

    Grenada

     

     

     

    Guinea

     

     

     

    Guinea-Bissau

     

     

     

    Haiti

     

     

     

    Kiribati

     

     

     

    Lesotho

     

     

     

    Liberia

     

     

     

    Liechtenstein

     

     

     

    Macao

     

     

     

    Malawi

     

     

     

    Maldives

     

     

     

    Mali

     

     

     

    Marshall Islands

     

     

     

    Mauritania

     

     

     

    Micronesia

     

     

     

    Montserrat

     

     

     

    Namibia

     

     

     

    Nauru

     

     

     

    Niger

     

     

     

    Niue

     

     

     

    Palau

     

     

     

    Palestine

     

     

     

    Rwanda

     

     

     

    Saint Helena

     

     

     

    Saint Kitts & Nevis

     

     

     

    Saint Lucia

     

     

     

    Saint Pierre & Miquelon

     

     

     

    Saint Vincent & Grenadines

     

     

     

    Samoa

     

     

     

    Sao Tome & Principe

     

     

     

    Seychelles

     

     

     

    Sierra Leone

     

     

     

    Sint Maarten (Dutch)

     

     

     

    Solomon Islands

     

     

     

    Somalia

     

     

     

    South Sudan

     

     

     

    Timor

     

     

     

    Togo

     

     

     

    Tonga

     

     

     

    Turks & Caicos Islands

     

     

     

    Tuvalu

     

     

     

    Vanuatu

     

     

     

    Wallis & Futuna

     

     

     

     

    About TRENDLines Research

    Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.



    ~




    ~

    • the FreeVenue chart-of-the-day is a public posting of guidance (charts, tables & analysis)

    • Trendlines Research has been publishing charts & analysis relating to Peak Oil, Macro-Economics, Climate Change & Political Election Projections since 1989.  Data analyst Freddy Hutter's media and professional commentary on these issues commenced in 1973

    • all charts, tables & text ?1989-2021 all rights reserved TRENDLines Research 

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